On the contrary; the EU is expansionist and certainly won't want to contract by jettisoning a "new" country that's been part of a member country for 40 years and already meets all the requirements of the acquis communautaire.
On the specific point of the Euro, I expect we'll retain the UK's opt-out, as will the rUK. Even if we didn't, which I think is vanishingly unlikely, there's a requirement to be in the ERM for a minimum of two years before joining the Euro, for which we'd have to have our own currency.
So the Euro is not going to happen. EU membership will, because there's no easy way to throw us out and no-one wants to. It took Iceland three years to negotiate their way out when they wanted to leave! It may not be the letter of the "law", but it's practical, pragmatic, international politics.
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branchandroot
no subject
Date: 2014-08-09 11:11 am (UTC)On the specific point of the Euro, I expect we'll retain the UK's opt-out, as will the rUK. Even if we didn't, which I think is vanishingly unlikely, there's a requirement to be in the ERM for a minimum of two years before joining the Euro, for which we'd have to have our own currency.
So the Euro is not going to happen. EU membership will, because there's no easy way to throw us out and no-one wants to. It took Iceland three years to negotiate their way out when they wanted to leave! It may not be the letter of the "law", but it's practical, pragmatic, international politics.